Author: TradeSmith Research Team

Our TradeSmith Research Team is dedicated to bringing you the most timely market updates.

TradeSmith Updates in Review

December 19, 2019 / by

It has been a very exciting year here at TradeSmith. As you know, one of our goals here is to constantly improve our programs. In this last Insider Update of 2019, we’d like to reflect on all the updates we’ve created this year for our various programs. Let’s dive in. TradeStops As you may know, … Continued

Conventional Investment Advice is Like Dieting Advice (All Over the Map and Terrible)

November 13, 2019 / by

There are few things more obnoxious than dieting and nutrition advice. The more you dig for answers, the more confusing things get. The findings conflict with each other. The recommendations are all over the map. For example, one guy, a doctor or a Ph.D., tells you whole wheat grains are a bedrock staple. Another Ph.D. … Continued

Buffett’s Silence Speaks Volumes as He Sits on a Mountain of Cash

November 8, 2019 / by

When it comes to sky-high market valuations, Warren Buffett doesn’t have to speak. His mountain of cash does all the talking. “Sky-high” was the exact phrase Buffett used to describe market prices earlier this year. In spite of hoping to make an “elephant-sized acquisition” — another Buffett phrase — Berkshire’s Hathaway’s cash pile has swelled … Continued

How Cycles and Position Sizing are Connected

November 6, 2019 / by

We’ve been talking about cycles for the past few weeks. You can get a refresher here: What Investors and Farmers Have in Common: The Enduring Power of Cycles The Lotka-Volterra Equations: Nature’s Ode to Boom and Bust The WeWork Implosion is a Spectacular Example of a Cycle Top (and Era’s End) Today, we’ll explain how … Continued

Big Tech is a Hot Mess, But Microsoft Floats Above the Fray

November 1, 2019 / by

The world of big tech looks like a chaotic, bruising, conflicted hot mess right now. And then there is Microsoft, floating above the fray. The Redmond, Wash.-based giant not only vies closely with Apple for the title of “most valuable company in the world” — both of them have a trillion-plus in market cap — … Continued

The WeWork Implosion is a Spectacular Example of a Cycle Top (and Era’s End)

October 30, 2019 / by

WeWork was, at one time, a Silicon Valley “unicorn” of legendary status. Now it is unicorn roadkill. In August, we argued that “The WeWork IPO Sums Up Everything Bad About the Unicorn Bubble.” That was more or less on point apart from one thing: The IPO never actually happened. Instead, WeWork self-destructed in one of … Continued

Buying Puts on Transport Stocks as a Protective Hedge

October 25, 2019 / by

The U.S. stock market is in an uncertain place right now. The Dow and S&P 500 are not far from their all-time highs, but technology stocks are a mixed bag and small caps are well off their highs. Then, too, economic indicators are also a mixed bag. Some point toward optimism, but others are more … Continued

The Lotka-Volterra Equations: Nature’s Ode to Boom and Bust

October 23, 2019 / by

Why should investors pay attention to cycles? For the same reason farmers pay attention to seasons. To maximize the harvest, a farmer has to know the given season — and the seasons are a four-part cycle that repeats year after year. It would make no sense for the farmer to try and harvest crops in … Continued

Negative Interest Rates Could Be Coming to the USA

October 18, 2019 / by

Ever since the financial crisis of 2008, monetary policy has had an “Alice in Wonderland” feel. The whole thing has been a crazy experiment — and the experiment is still ongoing. The next bizarre chapter could be negative U.S. rates. Negative interest rates have already shown up in bond markets all around the world. If … Continued

What Investors and Farmers Have in Common: The Enduring Power of Cycles

October 16, 2019 / by

What do investors and farmers have in common? Their work is dominated by cycles. A farmer who does not understand cycles — the ebb and flow of the seasons, a time to plant, a time to harvest, and a time to let the ground lay fallow — will not remain a farmer for long. Investors, … Continued