A chance meeting at the Stansberry Conference in Las Vegas last week got me thinking about the odds of different stock market scenarios.
It was Tuesday evening, the night before the conference began. I was at the registration desk waiting to get into the exhibit hall to set up the TradeStops table. There was one other couple at the desk going through the registration process and we started talking.
Stan and Mary introduced themselves to me. They live in the Pacific Northwest and have been TradeStops members for a while. We got to talking and during the course of our conversation, I found out that they’re from the same area of the country that I’m from… Kansas!
It turns out that Mary and I attended the same high school – Shawnee Mission East – in Prairie Village, Kansas. And Stan and I both went to the University of Kansas! Rock Chalk!! What are the odds that we’d end up meeting on a Tuesday night in Las Vegas?
I don’t know what those odds are. But I do know that TradeStops can help you understand the odds of succeeding in the markets.
This table shows the results of over 7400 trades going back 20 years using the SSI system. There were almost 53% winners. The average winner gained 84% while the average loser lost only 16%. That works out to an average gain per trade of almost 37%.
But what about the other side? A lot of people are afraid of a huge bear market similar to 2000-2002 and 2007-2009. How can we improve our odds of knowing when that is going to happen?
The red line below represents when 60% of S&P Select Sector ETF stocks are not stopped out. Anything below the line is when more than 40% of the stocks have been stopped out. Anything above the line is when less than 40% of the stocks are stopped out. The larger the percentage of stocks stopped out, the worse the market has done.
Looking forward to more chance encounters,
Education Director, TradeStops