This trade makes me very uncomfortable

All my indicators are pointing me towards a trade that I’m very uncomfortable making … and that’s a good thing.

The trade in question? Buy US Treasuries.

I hate the idea of buying Treasuries. I believe that inflation is being artificially suppressed and I don’t believe in the “full faith and credit” of the United States government.

But right now, all the signs point to a significant rally in US Treasuries … and, consequently, lower interest rates to come.

I’ve mentioned a few times in these pages that Treasuries had triggered a Re-Entry Rule back in late 2015 and were looking strong. But I was concerned that they had gone too far too fast. While the stock market has been rallying for the past month, Treasuries have been taking a breather … and recently they dipped into the Low Risk Zone.

Not only have Treasuries pulled back to my preferred sweet spot, they have done so with strong support from the Smart Moving Average. They also just had a super strong bounce off of support, as shown in the chart above … and that bounce is further supported by my time-cycle analysis per the chart below.

As I’ve predicted repeatedly over the past month, the stock market has rallied longer and further than any of the bears anticipated. The bears are definitely feeling the pain and the late bulls are starting to feel like they might miss the party if they don’t jump on board. Here’s the latest chart:

I could see this rally continuing to 2,100 … but it’s definitely getting long in the tooth. I’m starting to look for opportunities to get short.

Finally, I’d like to share with you my stock chart of the week … Old Republic International (NYSE:ORI). I love it when I come across a strong looking opportunity in a stock that has been completely overlooked. I can’t think of any, in the media or in a newsletter, mentioning Old Republic. Yet it’s been in business since 1923 and is among the nation’s 50 largest publicly held insurance companies. Moreover, it’s up over 100% in the past 4 years … and looks like it has more room to run.

It recently touched the top of its Low Risk Zone and bounced with strong support from its Smart Moving Average. It might be worth getting familiar with this old brand.

As for my beliefs? Well, I’ve learned to check my beliefs at the door when it comes to deciding where to invest my money. Even if my beliefs are ultimately proven to be correct, I’ve learned that I can lose a LOT of money while I wait to be proven right.

To making money over being right,